Is Flat US Amazon Prime Membership a Victory?

Another Prime Day fades into memory, and the last deliveries arrive and the first returns are processed. Now, we can review the size and state of Prime membership as of June 30, 2023.

As we reported over the past few quarters, our data shows that Amazon Prime membership in the US has reached a plateau. It will at best grow slightly in a given quarter, as it did in the most recent June 2023 quarter, though the total seems to have settled in a band that varies by only about 2%.

And as you may recall, we update our estimate each quarter, based on our new survey data and public figures from Amazon. We also look at the number of individuals with use of an Amazon Prime membership, rather than the number of paying Amazon Prime households. As US Prime membership growth stalled, the slight variances in our estimates fall within the margin of error of our calculations.

Often when a business stops growing, it starts shrinking. While there are stable businesses, many reach a peak and then start their slow (or rapid) decline. There is a long list of retailers that were unable to sustain their peak customer base. So what does a flattening in US Amazon Prime membership mean for Amazon’s prospects?

CIRP estimates 170 million US Amazon customers had a Prime membership as of the June 2023 quarter. This is essentially unchanged from our 168 million estimate for the June 2022 quarter (Chart 1).